Orange County says Amendment 3 would cost $165 million. It has not shown the math.

The county says the figures are based on current population and homeowner data. That description does not tell the public which tax-roll vintage was used, what millage was assumed, how growth or new construction was treated, or which parcel-level eligibility rules were applied.

Budget Director Kurt Petersen gave one useful scale comparison during the worksession. He described the $89 million countywide first-year figure as roughly 8 percent and about 0.4 mills. That helps show the size of the estimate. It does not reveal the full model or set a future tax rate.

Putting $46 million next to fire and $30 million next to sheriff can sound like a department budget has already been reduced by those amounts. It has not.

The figures describe projected revenue differences in separate levy groups. No adopted county budget assigns those amounts to layoffs, closed stations or fewer deputies.

Fire Chief Anthony Rios discussed the possibility that planned stations in growing areas could be delayed. He did not say existing stations were scheduled to close.

The county's Amendment 3 page also displays how current property-tax dollars are allocated, including public safety. That is a picture of today's spending. It is not a map of where a future Amendment 3 difference would be cut.

Orange County's estimate belongs in the public debate. So does its limitation: until the county publishes the workbook and assumptions, residents can see the answer but cannot reproduce the math.