Dyer warned of slower 911 response. His $80 million figure describes a different tax scenario.
Orlando and Orange County have forecast lower property-tax revenue, but neither has adopted a budget that turns those estimates into police, fire or parks cuts.
The amendment changes taxable value. Service levels would depend on later choices over millage, reserves, fees, hiring, capital projects and spending.
Mayor Buddy Dyer warned that Amendment 3 could mean slower 911 response, shorter park hours and other service cuts. But the biggest number in that warning does not describe Amendment 3's scheduled 2028 exemption.
In his 2026 State of the City speech, Dyer cited about $30 million for Orlando in 2028 and $50 million in 2029. He then said $80 million could be lost every year if the homestead exemption were entirely eliminated.
Amendment 3 does not entirely eliminate the homestead exemption in 2028. It sets the non-school exemption at $250,000 that year. A later local process could potentially go further, but that would be another decision.
A forecast is not a department budget
Orange County makes the same distinction important in a different way. It publishes $165 million for 2027 and $275 million for 2028, divided among countywide, fire and sheriff levy groups. Those are revenue estimates. No adopted county budget turns those figures into specific layoffs, station closures or service-hour reductions.
Fire Chief Anthony Rios said planned future stations in growing areas could be delayed. That is not the same claim as existing stations closing or 911 response automatically getting slower countywide.
Local governments still have choices
A smaller taxable base can produce less revenue if the rate is held constant. But local boards do not lose their budget authority when Amendment 3 passes.
They can vote on millage under state law. They can use reserves, change fees, slow hiring, delay capital work, reduce spending or combine those options. Each choice has legal and political limits, and each would require later public action.
Orlando's own financial record shows why the rate and the tax base have to be considered together. The city kept its millage at 6.6500 from 2021 through 2025 while property-tax collections rose overall from about $238.3 million to $342.1 million.
Dyer also praised Orlando's triple-A rating and strong reserves in the same speech and said 44 new first responders were on the way. He did not identify a reserve draw, a future millage vote or an adopted department line behind the 911 and parks warnings.
The revenue forecasts are real. So are the potential budget pressures. What has not happened is the step local messaging often skips: a board has not yet decided which budget choices would follow.
Sources
Notes
- None.
Read next
- Orange County says Amendment 3 would cost $165 million. It has not shown the math. The county's estimate is official, but the public workbook and assumed millage are not. Its fire and sheriff figures are levy projections, not adopted department cuts.
- How a tax forecast became a warning about 911 Dyer's $30 million and $50 million estimates, an $80 million full-elimination scenario and Orange County's levy projections are different figures. Public messaging has often placed them beside the same service warnings.
- What's actually true about Amendment 3 The tax changes are real. So are local revenue estimates. Several claims now attached to them go further than the official records support.