Local boards still set millage under Chapter 2026-240.
CS/SB 4-F · Chapter 2026-240
Florida already changed how cities and counties adopt millage. A majority may adopt the rolled-back rate. Two-thirds may go up to 110 percent of that rate. Higher rates need a larger board vote or voter approval. A No vote on Amendment 3 does not repeal that statute. City and county budgets already operate under it.
Amendment 3 is not the millage lawThe county modeled $165 million less in 2027 and $275 million in 2028 if rates stay where its model put them. That is a modeled future, not an adopted department assignment.
Public speech figures are not a city budget. The city would still adopt millage under Chapter 2026-240, with or without Amendment 3.
Conditional cash-revenue estimate if voters approve Amendment 3. State model for Orange County Board of County Commissioners.
Source: Florida Revenue Estimating Conference — FL-REC-A3-0710
The Orange County row is the Board of County Commissioners levy only. The City row is the municipal levy only. These authorities are separate and are never combined into a household tax bill.
FY 2026-27
FY 2027-28
FY 2028-29
FY 2029-30
FY 2030-31
FY 2031-32
Conditional state model if voters approve Amendment 3. It is not an adopted budget, a preset service outcome, money already earned, or a guarantee.
Actual recognized revenue, accounting basis
For Orange County Board of County Commissioners, completed-year actual recognized revenue moved from $992.3 million in FY 2021 to $1.5 billion in FY 2025 across the reported FY 2021 through FY 2025 series.
| Fiscal year | Measure label | Actual recognized revenue | Source ID |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2021 | Actual recognized revenue: governmental activities ad valorem revenue | $992.3 million | OCFL-ACFR-2025 |
| FY 2022 | Actual recognized revenue: governmental activities ad valorem revenue | $1 billion | OCFL-ACFR-2025 |
| FY 2023 | Actual recognized revenue: governmental activities ad valorem revenue | $1.2 billion | OCFL-ACFR-2025 |
| FY 2024 | Actual recognized revenue: governmental activities ad valorem revenue | $1.3 billion | OCFL-ACFR-2025 |
| FY 2025 | Actual recognized revenue: governmental activities ad valorem revenue | $1.5 billion | OCFL-ACFR-2025 |
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The County record is marked R-NVAB. Taxable value × the published4.4347 mills rate equals $1,042,772,970, which is $8,748 above the separately published levy. The calculator uses taxable value × rate for illustrative levy capacity and keeps the published levy as a source record; it does not treat this reconciliation difference as an unstated model assumption.
Conditional cash-revenue estimate if voters approve Amendment 3. State model for City of Orlando.
Source: Florida Revenue Estimating Conference — FL-REC-A3-0710
The Orange County row is the Board of County Commissioners levy only. The City row is the municipal levy only. These authorities are separate and are never combined into a household tax bill.
FY 2026-27
FY 2027-28
FY 2028-29
FY 2029-30
FY 2030-31
FY 2031-32
Conditional state model if voters approve Amendment 3. It is not an adopted budget, a preset service outcome, money already earned, or a guarantee.
Actual recognized revenue, accounting basis
For City of Orlando, completed-year actual recognized revenue moved from $238.3 million in FY 2021 to $342.1 million in FY 2025 across the reported FY 2021 through FY 2025 series.
| Fiscal year | Measure label | Actual recognized revenue | Source ID |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2021 | Actual recognized revenue: property-tax revenue | $238.3 million | ORL-PAFR-2025 |
| FY 2022 | Actual recognized revenue: property-tax revenue | $249.5 million | ORL-PAFR-2025 |
| FY 2023 | Actual recognized revenue: property-tax revenue (cross-checked correction) | $284.2 million | ORL-PAFR-2024-CROSSCHECK |
| FY 2024 | Actual recognized revenue: property-tax revenue | $319.3 million | ORL-PAFR-2025 |
| FY 2025 | Actual recognized revenue: property-tax revenue | $342.1 million | ORL-PAFR-2025 |
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Orange County qualifies its figures with current population and homeowner data. The inputs needed to reproduce the figure have not been published.
Mayor Buddy Dyer's $80 million statement is a different full-elimination scenario, not an Amendment 3 REC model value or an illustrative scenario input.
Published assumptions are not directly comparable, so a difference between figures does not prove either model wrong.
Florida REC conditional cash-revenue difference
Florida Revenue Estimating Conference CS/HJR 1-F package, July 10, 2026. Conditional modeled cash-revenue differences if voters approve; not an adopted local budget or service decision. Orange County BCC and City of Orlando are separate authority rows.
Orange County actual ad valorem revenue history
Completed-year actual recognized revenue on an accounting basis from the FY 2025 Orange County ACFR historical statistical schedule, line “Ad valorem tax.” This contextual series is separate from REC conditional projections and levy-scenario inputs.
City of Orlando actual property-tax revenue history
Completed-year actual recognized revenue on an accounting basis from the FY 2025 City of Orlando PAFR, cross-checked against the official FY 2024 City of Orlando PAFR (ORL-PAFR-2024-CROSSCHECK). The FY 2025 PAFR appears to carry a FY 2023 transcription error of 248198792; this dataset publishes the cross-checked FY 2023 value 284198792. This contextual series is separate from REC conditional projections and levy-scenario inputs.
Authority levy baselines for illustrative response scenarios
Authority-matched 2025 tax-roll inputs for the illustrative response formula. The county baseline is the County Government Operating levy, not a composite countywide rate; FL-DOR-2025-COUNTY-TAXABLE supports taxable value and FL-DOR-2025-COUNTY-LEVY supports the levy and rate. Status is R-NVAB. Taxable value × 4.4347 mills = 1042772970.07, which is 8748.07 above the separately published levy of 1042764222. The scenario uses taxable value × rate while retaining each source value as published. The city municipal row is self-contained.