How a tax forecast became a warning about 911
Dyer's $30 million and $50 million estimates, an $80 million full-elimination scenario and Orange County's levy projections are different figures. Public messaging has often placed them beside the same service warnings.
The constitutional change, the revenue forecasts and the possible service response are three separate steps. Only the first is written into Amendment 3.
The argument over Amendment 3 has repeatedly compressed three different things into one sentence: what the amendment changes, how much revenue local governments estimate they could collect under the new rules, and what elected officials might choose to do in response.
Those are not the same thing.
Orlando's three numbers
In his 2026 State of the City speech, Mayor Buddy Dyer cited about $30 million for Orlando in 2028 and $50 million in 2029. He also said $80 million could be lost every year if the homestead exemption were entirely eliminated.
That last condition matters. Amendment 3 does not entirely eliminate the exemption in 2028. It sets the non-school exemption at $250,000 that year and creates a process through which a later local decision could potentially go further.
Dyer placed those figures in the same speech as warnings about slower 911 response, shorter park hours and other service pressure. The speech did not identify an adopted budget, a specific reserve draw or a later millage vote that would produce those outcomes.
Orange County uses different numbers
Orange County publishes $165 million for 2027 and $275 million for 2028. Its July worksession divided those figures among countywide, fire and sheriff levy groups.
The county has not published the workbook or assumed millage behind the estimate. And the fire and sheriff columns are not adopted department cuts.
Fire Chief Anthony Rios discussed planned stations in growing areas that could be delayed. That is a narrower claim than saying Amendment 3 automatically slows 911 response.
The conditions matter
The official records support the revenue forecasts as forecasts. They also support the fact that officials warned about services.
What they do not show is a budget decision already made.
That missing step is where the public argument gets distorted. A constitutional tax change can reduce taxable value. A government can estimate what that does to collections under a set of assumptions. Elected officials still have to decide what rate to adopt, whether to use reserves or fees, what spending to change and which services, if any, absorb the difference.
The amendment, the estimate and the response belong in the same story. They should not be collapsed into the same fact.
Sources
- Mayor Buddy Dyer's 2026 State of the City prepared text
- City of Orlando Property Taxes page
- City of Orlando 2025 Popular Annual Financial Report
- Orange County Property Tax Amendment 3 page
- Orange County July 15, 2026 worksession record
- Secondary recap: Florida Politics on Dyer's 2026 State of the City address
Notes
- None.
Read next
- Dyer warned of slower 911 response. His $80 million figure describes a different tax scenario. Orlando and Orange County have forecast lower property-tax revenue, but neither has adopted a budget that turns those estimates into police, fire or parks cuts.
- Orange County says Amendment 3 would cost $165 million. It has not shown the math. The county's estimate is official, but the public workbook and assumed millage are not. Its fire and sheriff figures are levy projections, not adopted department cuts.
- What's actually true about Amendment 3 The tax changes are real. So are local revenue estimates. Several claims now attached to them go further than the official records support.